SIP LABS.
INDUSTRIAL DECARBONISATION · INVESTMENT STRATEGY
The SIP Framework
The SIP Framework is a three-component analytical system for translating deep uncertainty into structured, investment-grade decarbonisation decisions. It was designed for organisations that need more than a scenario analysis or a cost curve — they need a complete pathway from qualitative futures to financially defensible strategy.
HOW IT WORKS
Three components. One system.
01
Qualitative Foresight - Scenario Setting
The SIP Framework applies a structured futures methodology derived from SAMI Consulting's SAFIRE scenario architecture. Rather than producing a baseline and variants, it generates a set of plausible, richly described futures across the key uncertainty axes that govern decarbonisation conditions: policy coherence, technology adoption velocity, market structure, and financial system response.
These scenarios are not simplified. They are designed to surface disruptive shocks rather than smooth them away – the conditions under which most forecasts break down.
02
Quantitative Modelling - Pathway Analysis
Each qualitative scenario is translated into a quantitative analytical frame. The modelling produces dynamic abatement curves that evolve with technology maturity and learning rates, inter-industry dependency analysis using Input-Output methods, technology readiness trajectories for relevant innovation technologies, and financially grounded pathway comparisons including NPV, IRR, and payback under scenario conditions.
The result is a multifactorial quantification of decarbonisation options – not a single-point forecast, but a structured representation of the probability-weighted cost, risk, and value of each pathway across the scenario envelope.
03
Strategy Design - Net-Zero Pathways
Strategy design is the final component and the one that makes the analytical work actionable. For each client context – company, investor, or government – the framework produces a ranked set of abatement strategies with financial valuations, investment priorities, and implementation sequencing.
These recommendations are stress-tested across scenarios. A strategy that looks optimal under a single forecast but fragile under three others is identified as such. The output is a defensible position, ready for the investment committee or policy brief.
CURRENT CONDITIONS
Designed for uncertainty. Validated by it.
The SIP Framework was developed in 2022 under the working assumption that decarbonisation decisions would be made under persistent deep uncertainty – fragmented policy, uneven technology maturity, volatile capital markets. That assumption has been borne out.
The conditions we now describe as Deep Oak – competitive green industrial policy replacing multilateral cooperation, CBAM entering force, continued policy volatility in major economies, and sustained uncertainty across technology learning rates – are precisely the conditions the framework was built to navigate.
A second edition of the SIP Framework is in preparation, incorporating updated scenario architecture, improved modelling of technology interdependencies, and a worked case study of European industrial decarbonisation under Deep Oak conditions.
DOWNLOAD
Access the first edition.
The full SIP Framework document is available for download. It sets out the methodology, the scenario architecture, the modelling approach, and strategy design.